HOW IT WORKS
This Is Not an Algorithm. It's a Measurement.
The Crystal Ball is powered by the SELL ODD$ Probability Engine — a system built from the ground up to do one thing: measure the real probability of sale at any given price point, using only empirical market data from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service (CRMLS). No guesswork. No estimates. No black-box algorithms generating a number no one can explain. Every probability you see is derived from actual closed sales and actual market failures within your immediate area.
When you moved the price slider, you weren't looking at a guess. You were looking at a calibrated probability curve — 201 individual price points computed across the full range of the slider — each one reflecting the real ratio of success to failure at that price level based on comparable market outcomes.
THE PROCESS
Eight Filtering Gates. Zero Assumptions.
Every time you load a property into the Crystal Ball, the engine executes a rigorous filtration pipeline. No inquiry is treated the same. Every property gets its own custom analysis based on where it sits, what it is, and what the surrounding market has done.
Adaptive Tiered Radius — The system starts tight and only expands when it has to. It searches the immediate neighborhood first. If the data is insufficient, it widens in controlled increments but increases selectivity with each expansion. A hard geographic ceiling prevents cross-submarket contamination.
Structural Matching — Comparables must match the subject property's structural profile. Bed count, bath count, and property type are gated — not suggested, gated. A four-bedroom home is not compared to a two-bedroom home regardless of how close they are in price.
Three-Year Rolling Window — The engine draws from a live, rolling three-year window of market activity. Old enough to capture full market cycles. Recent enough to reflect current conditions.
Price Banding — Comparables are filtered to a controlled price band around the subject. Properties far outside the subject's realistic range are excluded before they can distort the measurement.
Sold and Failed Outcomes — This is what separates the Crystal Ball from everything else. The engine doesn't just look at what sold. It looks at what didn't sell. Expired listings. Withdrawn listings. Canceled listings. Every failed attempt to sell a property at a given price is part of the equation. Without failure data, probability is meaningless.
Minimum Thresholds — The engine demands minimum sample sizes of both sold and failed outcomes before it produces a score. If the data isn't sufficient to produce a reliable measurement, it says so. It does not fabricate confidence where none exists.
Lease Contamination Filtering — Lease listings that appear in the MLS are detected and excluded. A rental comp is not a sale comp.
Property Subtype Matching — Single-family residences are compared to single-family residences. Condos to condos. Manufactured homes to manufactured homes. The engine does not blend property types.
WHAT THE SCORE MEANS
A Single Number That Tells You the Truth.
The percentage you see inside the Crystal Ball is not an opinion. It is not a recommendation. It is a direct measurement: out of all comparable properties in your area that were listed within this price range, this is the percentage that successfully closed versus the percentage that failed. That's it. No adjustments. No manipulation. Just the market's track record, applied to your price point.
A high probability means the market has a strong track record of closing sales at this price level. A low probability means the opposite — properties in this range have a history of sitting, expiring, or being pulled from the market. The Crystal Ball doesn't tell you what to do. It shows you what the market has done, so you can make your own informed decision.
THE SLIDER
See How Price Affects Probability — In Real Time.
The price slider beneath the Crystal Ball isn't decorative. It's an interactive elasticity curve. As you move the slider from 25% below the suggested price to 15% above it, the Crystal Ball recalculates the probability at every point along that range. You can see, in real time, exactly where the probability of sale begins to drop — and how sharply it falls.
This is price elasticity made visible. Most sellers have never seen what happens to their odds when they overprice by $10,000 or $20,000. Now they can. And agents can have an honest, data-driven conversation instead of a subjective one.
THE JUSTIFY BUTTON
Don't Trust the Score. Verify It.
The amber JUSTIFY button beneath the Crystal Ball opens a full proof panel — the empirical evidence behind the score. This is where you see the actual comparable properties that drove the calculation. The sold comps. The failed comps. The data points. Everything the engine used to produce the number you're looking at.
Here's what most people don't know: the most valuable data in real estate isn't what sold. It's what didn't. Expired listings. Withdrawn listings. Canceled listings. Every property that failed to sell at a given price is a data point the industry has never shown consumers — because under IDX and VOW (Virtual Office Website) regulations, it can't be. Failed listing data is restricted. It is not permitted to be displayed to the general public. This is the data that powers the Crystal Ball, and it's the reason no other consumer-facing tool can do what this one does.
MLS rules require that anyone viewing this information enter into a lawful broker-consumer relationship and acknowledge that the data is for personal, non-commercial use only. When you create your free account, you're acknowledging five things: that you are entering into a broker-consumer relationship with Greg Anderson, REALTOR® (DRE# 01071792) at Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty; that all MLS data provided is for your personal, non-commercial use only; that you will not copy, redistribute, scrape, or retransmit MLS data; that you have a bona fide interest in the purchase, sale, or lease of real estate; and that the MLS retains copyright in all displayed data. You also agree to the Terms of Use.
This isn't a paywall. It's a compliance requirement — and it unlocks something you've never been shown before. Every Zestimate, every CMA, every automated valuation you've ever seen was built on half the picture. The Crystal Ball is built on the whole picture. The sold and the failed. The wins and the losses. Two checkboxes are all that stand between you and the most complete pricing data a consumer has ever had access to.
MARKET LEVERAGE ANALYSIS
Who Has the Power — Buyers or Sellers?
The ANALYSIS button opens a Market Leverage Analysis that measures the current balance of power in your specific market. It calculates four independent drivers — supply pressure, sell-through rate, price realization, and days on market — and produces a single leverage reading. The gauge shows whether buyers or sellers currently hold the advantage in your immediate area, and by how much. You can toggle between a hyperlocal radius and a citywide view to see how your neighborhood compares to the broader market.
WHERE THE DATA COMES FROM
Live. Verified. Unmanipulated.
Every data point displayed in the Crystal Ball comes directly from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service (CRMLS) — the largest MLS in the United States. The data is not scraped, estimated, or algorithmically generated. It is the same data that licensed real estate professionals use to price, market, and sell homes every day. The engine queries this data live for every inquiry. There is no stale cache. There is no pre-computed estimate waiting for you. Every score is calculated fresh, for your property, at the moment you request i
Greg Anderson, REALTOR® · DRE# 01071792 · Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty
All listing data provided by the California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (CRMLS). All MLS data is for personal, non-commercial use only. The probability scores displayed are empirical measurements derived from comparable market outcomes and do not constitute an appraisal, guarantee, or recommendation of any kind. © 2026 Mountain Cribs. All rights reserved.
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